The United States strong recovery is coming, the pace of consumption durable goods, non-durable goods and services three levels of succession, real estate investment climbed throughout the year, the recovery process, the midstream machinery and equipment boom lifted significantly. Extraction, information / communication equipment, metal products, chemical products, capital expenditure to enhance the probability of the largest.
The new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States landed, how the subsidies are used.
(1) About 29% of the funds are used for consumption, including 18.2% for non-durable goods, 7.7% for durable goods, and about 36% for savings.
2) Consumption savings vary by income bracket, race, etc., with higher income savings rates.
(3) After the epidemic, there may be 20 percentage points of savings rate to be released, and high savings to consumption transformation to continue to boost the economy.
One of the power sources of recovery: residential consumption will show a three-tier relay of durable goods, non-durable goods and services, with the strongest annual consumption momentum in the second quarter.
(1) The rhythm of the epidemic determines the variation of consumption, according to the Israeli experience, the whole immunization is expected to drive the recovery of service consumption before, the U.S. group immunization or in the beginning of the third quarter, the timing of the improvement of service consumption will also be advanced.
(2) in the first half of the year, the post-cycle of real estate to drive the consumption of durable goods, superimposed on subsidies to support the demand for durable goods to remain strong, pay attention to the domestic computer, home appliances, fitness equipment and other export demand.
(3) in the second quarter, non-durable goods consumption to enhance, clothing, oil and other demand release. In the second quarter, service consumption will be released, in the current negative growth of 7% and service consumption accounted for 65% of personal spending, service consumption recovery policy on economic support role is significant. Consumption momentum in the second quarter or the strongest, the annual growth rate or more than 7%.
4) As the economic recovery continues, equipment demand will continue to improve, and the corresponding domestic export highlights will gradually transition from consumer goods to capital goods (equipment, parts).
The second source of recovery power: real estate consumption before the high and then low, investment throughout the year to improve.
1) The U.S. real estate market is supported by two fundamentals, on the one hand, the 25-49 year olds have resumed positive growth in 2020, and on the other hand, the proportion of young people living with their parents has been rising. The elevated demand for housing brought about by the epidemic and low interest rates stimulate a high boom in the real estate market.
(2) U.S. new home supply and housing inventory constraints on high growth in real estate sales and may be due to the upward movement of mortgage rates and phase weakness, expected sales before high and then low.
(3) new residential and construction spending growth rate or gradually climbing throughout the year.
Strong demand adds another boost to the global Juglar cycle.
(1) strong demand, the epidemic did not produce a large number of bankruptcy, leading concentration, new technologies (carbon neutral, supply chain upgrades, etc.) are bringing capital spending momentum, the Federal Reserve survey shows that spending expectations in significantly higher.
(2) based on corporate earnings, capacity utilization and inventory of the three-dimensional scoring system, we believe that the subsequent midstream machinery and equipment boom rose significantly, extractive, information / communication equipment, metal products, chemical products, capital expenditure to enhance the probability of the largest, driving the corresponding equipment momentum.
Risk: tightening financial conditions to slow down the economic recovery process, political and economic uncertainty impact economic growth, inflation risk