Last week the U.S. dollar index showed an upward trend in line with expectations, which is the result of the dual role of the fundamental support and technical use of the dollar. The US index appreciated 0.5% in one week from 91.7916 points to 92.2533 points; the highest level was 92.7619 points and the lowest was 91.6974 points, with an amplitude of 1.14%. In this context, other currencies depreciated significantly, but the RMB depreciation was moderated and limited due to the characteristics of the month-end and quarterly nodes. Although both the onshore and offshore exchange rates ended up at 6.47 yuan, the range or month-end levels are expected to differ. The logic and support of the economic differences between the U.S. and other countries itself is obvious, but the goal of the U.S. dollar policy guidance and public opinion guidance – the dollar depreciation is very clear, which is why it is said that under the use of the time cycle and technical cycle, the exchange rate trend is not a reflection of the fundamentals, the implementation and manipulation of monetary capacity and objectives is the market state It is the implementation of the monetary capacity and objectives that dominate and guide the market state.
The goal of the dollar at the moment is to moderate appreciation. In accordance with the dollar’s intentions, the U.S. economy is focused on unemployment pressure or adverse factors, so the dollar appreciated with restraint over the weekend. The main factors focused on the U.S. unemployment rate June indicator from the previous 5.6% up to 5.9%, June non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000, exceeding expectations of 706,000, and May non-farm payrolls were revised up to 583,000 from the last release of 559,000. The U.S. jobs report signals signs of accelerating labor market growth, but the cycle of uncertainty remains, whether future changes in the Fed’s policy path is very important to the market. And from other economic indicators throughout the week, the U.S. economy is solid more prominent, and thus the U.S. stock market rose to a climax, a week of record highs in U.S. stocks from the economic side of the boom data support is the key. In particular, the U.S. average hourly earnings in June rose 0.3% from a year earlier and 3.6% from a year earlier, which is not only in line with expectations, but more importantly, the reality of inflation in the U.S. and the supporting nature of coping strategies is the focus. The subjective and objective homeopathic adjustment of the dollar trend is a reflection of its strengths and privileges, and the dollar adjustment is the focus.
U.S. fiscal deficit pressure remains a policy resistance. The atmosphere that suppressed the rally of the U.S. index for a week is still the bad data of the U.S. fiscal deficit, and the dollar is distorted by the concern of the concentration structure of the restrained appreciation. On the one hand, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office released data showing that the U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to reach 13.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2021, which is the second highest deficit level since 1945. The current U.S. fiscal deficit reached 2.06 trillion U.S. dollars, the fiscal deficit problem is the U.S. fiscal support policy constraints, so the U.S. President Biden’s bailout plan to lift a difficult to implement. Just the current U.S. economic confidence is sufficient, the level of economic growth of 7.0% is the fastest growth rate of the U.S. economy since 1984. Therefore, the U.S. uses its own interest rate public opinion to support the existence of financial resources source channel intentions, while using international forces to channel their own structural pressure. Such as the OECD said 130 member countries support the global minimum corporate tax rate reform program, which will provide support for Biden’s tax increase measures of fiscal revenue necessarily, the dollar depreciation by this. On the other hand is the U.S. government data on Friday showed that the U.S. trade deficit in May was $71.2 billion, compared with an estimated deficit of $71.3 billion and a previous deficit of $68.9 billion. The U.S. economy is recovering with a clear rise in demand, import growth and limited exports of its own personality remains unchanged, and the trade deficit is also one of the structural problems of the economy, but the relative dollar trend is a reflection of the homeopathic trend.
International oil price regulation is still dominated by U.S. factors. The fact that the current international oil prices are rising is clearly visible and extraordinary, the level above $75 is not a high point, and is currently only a natural repair after a negative relative plunge, regardless of the income of oil-producing countries or demand countries can not be met, the basis of high prices double superimposed boost significantly. Therefore the market is expected to oil high in line with reality, especially U.S. inflation and oil is not the general principle and logic, subjective design as well as the objective actual needs are the focus of the market should be concerned. On the one hand, the OPEC meeting is tangled facing upward opportunities. This week is OPEC + coalition meeting sensitive period, the two oil prices meandering back to the $ 75 mark, and finally closed the weekend stand at $ 75, nearly 3 years high, a cumulative increase of 1.5% for the whole week, and is the sixth consecutive week up to set the longest continuous cycle since December last year. But the reality is that OPEC+ has been forced to interrupt and postpone its meetings due to ongoing disagreements, which is inevitable for oil price irritability. On the other hand U.S. oil supply to market demand security strengthen, which is an important privilege and power to boost oil prices. After all, the United States is the advantage of having the obvious, the release of oil reserves abundance on the market regulation has functional significance and impact. Plus the U.S. oil technology or offer mechanism advantage is the key to oil being at the mercy of the pendulum. Therefore, a week of oil prices chain reaction up situation has the function of restraining the U.S. index up, there are also factors to stimulate the rise of oil, for oil prices, for inflation, for interest rates triangle relationship is very tangled and complex.
It is expected that this week the U.S. index appreciation inertia momentum exists, the appreciation temperament does not relax, the U.S. index oscillation bias up trend will continue. Compared to other currencies own energy is limited, the technical swing of the dollar regulation will be the inevitable future exchange rate combination effect, including the current euro is expected to rise to 1.25 U.S. dollars, the actual disconnected euro economic side serious, more difficult to articulate or dock with monetary policy, foreign exchange market risk anxiety and competitive anxiety duality is worth paying attention to the non-rational and speculative atmosphere and mood.